Long-Term Optimist, Short-Term Pessimist

One phrase captures how I approach life, work, and investing: long-term optimist, short-term pessimist.

At first glance it looks contradictory. In reality, it is the only mindset that makes sense in a world that is full of opportunity yet constantly shaken by shocks.

Why the Long-Term Optimist View

Across centuries the trend is clear. Technology, health, communication, and living standards have all moved upward. Innovation compounds. Human ingenuity adapts to crises. The trajectory has always bent upward despite wars, pandemics, or recessions.

That gives me confidence that, on a multi-decade horizon, being optimistic about humanity, markets, and personal growth is rational. I expect better tools, healthier lives, and new opportunities for my children. That optimism guides how I invest, the projects I build, and the risks I take.

Why the Short-Term Pessimist View

Zoom in and the picture changes. Cycles matter. Markets overshoot. Politicians stumble. Companies fail. Supply chains break. Human error repeats itself.

Assuming smooth sailing is dangerous. I expect setbacks, volatility, and disappointments. I prepare for them by keeping buffers, diversifying, and questioning hype. In business and investing, this means stress-testing assumptions, protecting the downside, and expecting things to go wrong before they go right.

The Problem With Long-Term Pessimists

Where I part ways with many people today is with long-term pessimists. They come in different guises. Some are AI doomers convinced artificial intelligence will end humanity. Others are climate catastrophists certain that environmental collapse is around the corner. Then there are the anti-natalists who call it irresponsible to bring children into the world at all. In finance you see it in the FIRE community’s perma-savers, people who cling to austerity while denying themselves life’s richness. Politically it often shows up in progressive declinists, convinced society is spiraling down.

A Short History of Failed Long-Term Pessimism

This mindset is not new. Every generation has had its prophets of decline, and they have always been wrong.

• Malthusian collapse (18th–19th century). Thomas Malthus warned that population growth would outstrip food supply. Instead, agricultural innovation and later the Green Revolution produced food surpluses and supported unprecedented population growth.
• Nuclear annihilation (Cold War, mid-20th century). Many were certain a U.S.–Soviet nuclear exchange would end civilization. The risk was real, but deterrence, arms control, and diplomacy kept the peace.
• The Club of Rome (1970s). Limits to Growth predicted resource exhaustion and global economic collapse. Oil reserves expanded, efficiency improved, and recycling reduced scarcity. Growth continued.
• Y2K panic (1999). Headlines warned of systemic collapse as the millennium approached. Billions were spent preparing. Midnight struck and life carried on.
• Financial crisis (2008–2009). The crash was severe, but forecasts of permanent depression and the death of capitalism proved false. Policy response and resilience paved the way for one of the longest bull markets in history.

The pattern is always the same. Pessimists are often right about problems but wrong about outcomes. They underestimate the compounding power of innovation and human adaptability. Betting against the future has never paid off.

The Discipline of My Stance

Holding both optimism and pessimism in tension creates balance. Optimism gives direction. It keeps me building and investing in what matters even when sentiment turns dark. Pessimism enforces discipline. It stops me from getting carried away by short-term enthusiasm or blind to risks.

But I never lose sight of the bigger arc. Collapse narratives are seductive, but they have always been wrong. Hiding has never been a winning strategy.

The Day-to-Day Struggle

This mindset works well in theory, but it is harder to hold in practice. Day to day the world often feels like a circus of incompetence, noise, and bad incentives. Idiotic behavior, short-term greed, and the clownish side of politics and culture can easily drag you down.

This is where Stoicism becomes essential. Marcus Aurelius reminded himself daily that he would meet “the meddling, the ungrateful, the arrogant.” The Stoic stance is to accept that the world is imperfect, that people will fail, and that irritation only adds a second injury to the first.

“You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” —Marcus Aurelius

“We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.” —Seneca

“It’s not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.” —Epictetus

Short-term pessimism acknowledges risk. Stoicism helps you withstand it without bitterness. To stay effective you need both: clear-eyed realism about the daily chaos, and the discipline to keep moving without letting the noise corrode your optimism.

Living It Out

That balance is not abstract for me. It has shaped each stage of my life.

In my twenties I chose to build a business instead of chasing a safe job. It was a long-term bet on myself and on technology.

In my thirties I applied the same mindset to investing. I stayed careful in the short term but convinced that innovation and markets move upward over decades. Not everything went smoothly. When high-risk investments turned against me in 2021 I lost a significant amount. It was a brutal reminder of volatility. But I did not throw in the towel. I did the work to recover through therapy, reflection, and conversations with people I trust. That process strengthened my conviction. Setbacks do not cancel the long-term trajectory; they test whether you can stay in the game.

Having children is another form of long-term optimism. I spend as much time with them as I can, passing on lessons and values I believe will compound in their lives.

Now I am focusing my energy on AI. Where some see risk, I see possibility. It is the next great wave of leverage and productivity.

To help keep this mindset sharp I built the Good Life Collective. It is a space to surround myself with high-agency people who also believe in progress. It keeps me grounded in optimism while also giving me an outlet to air frustrations when the clown world inevitably wears me down.

Why It Matters Now

In today’s environment of fast-moving AI, volatile markets, and shifting geopolitics, being a long-term optimist and short-term pessimist is not just a personal quirk. It is a strategy. Those who are blindly optimistic get wrecked by the next downturn. Those who are long-term pessimists never create or invest in anything that lasts.

The winning path is holding both truths at once.

Short-term pessimism keeps you alive. Long-term optimism makes life worth living.